Sunday, August 12, 2012

Prediction Contest Results: #2 London Olympics, #2 All-Time

This Guide to the Universe, my quadrennial "fearless picks and predictions," served as my entry in two international prediction contests.

The contest includes all 47 of the track and field events and has absorbed the former Track and Field News prediction contest. It is widely viewed as the gold standard among the prediction contests.

An interesting difference between the two is that T+FN counted medals in three categories, regardless of place: total men medalists, total women medalists, total medals. rewards accuracy of the medal picks: 4 points for gold, 3 for silver, 2 for bronze, 10 points for 1-2-3. You also get one point if you choose a medalist but in the incorrect place.

The final results are posted here:
(You may need to copy and paste this link into your browser.)
And the result is... 2nd out of 384.
As the winner is from Italy, this is the #1 entry from the United States.

The other, hosted by, includes all of the running events, none of the walking, and four field events per gender (the reason for the choice of the four field events is unclear to me):
Men - shot put, triple jump, high jump, decathlon
Women - pole vault, long jump, high jump, heptathlon.

UPDATE: the LetsRun results are now in - 12th (tie) out of 2197.

One final update on 9/4: has now updated the all-time lists. The contest goes back to the Seoul Olympics in 1988 and includes 23 Olympic, World, and European Championships. And where does the Guide's score of 213 in this year's London Olympics rank? #2 all-time.


I hope you have enjoyed the Guide and that it has enhanced both your enjoyment and understanding of these stupendous track and field events of the London Olympics.

Meanwhile, it's 6:30am in Seattle and I've been up since just before 3:00 to watch what proved to be a terrific men's marathon. I'm think I'm going to take myself out to breakfast now and then rest up for Closing Ceremonies!

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