for events beginning on
Day 5 – Tuesday, August 16
W 5,000m
The ’15 World Championship 5,000m was an Ethiopian sweep,
but not nearly in the order anyone might have predicted. Genzebe Dibaba was a
prohibitive favorite to win, but her 1500/5000 double was not to be; gold and
bronze is never a bad meet, unless you’re the queen and you don’t want to give
up your crown.
Almaz Ayana (Eth) shot to the top of her country’s distance
running ranks with a stirring 14:26.83 World 5,000m win, and since then, she
hasn’t looked back, as we saw so clearly on the opening day of the Olympics
when she obliterated the world record at 10,000m.
Genzebe Dibaba’s key mistake may well have come much earlier
in the meet when she ran the fastest first round 1500m in history – a 4:04.59 –
the most unnecessary race I’ve ever seen in that she ran far faster than she
needed to in order to advance. It caught up to her when she faded to 3rd
in the Beijing 5,000m, and in Ethiopian athletics, the penalty is harsh. Who
would have guessed a year ago that she would be entered in only one event in
the Olympics?
Dibaba’s sister Tirunesh will carry the family flag in the
5,000m. At this distance, she has Olympic gold from London and two bronzes, one
dating all the way back to 2004. Add World titles in ’03 and ’05… and did I
mention cross country? She’s won four World XC titles.
Senbere Tefere (Eth) won silver in Beijing; she and Genzebe
Dibaba waged a furious battle for second, which the 20 year old won. Words I’d
never thought I’d write.
Kenya’s Hellen Obiri brings terrific range at 2:00/3:57/8:20
to her ever-growing resume. She won against deep Diamond League fields in
Eugene (5,000m) and Monaco (3,000m) this year, and set her 5k PR of 14:32.02 in
Eugene.
In Eugene, she served notice to her Kenyan Olympic teammates
Vivian Cheruiyot and Mercy Cherono when they finished 3rd and 4th
in that race. Still, Cheruiyot has quite a collection of medals at this
distance: World golds in ’09 and ’11, and silver in ’07. Cherono has two World
5ths and a silver from Moscow, but it’s her four 2nds in DL races
this year that show she has moved up a step in the world order.
(Note: the picks at the end of each preview are the ones I
entered in the http://www.atstat.org/
Olympic Track and Field prediction contest. Entries were due on Thursday,
August 11, the day before the Olympic track and field began. From time to time
I will post both the contest entries as well as a revised entry based on
updated results since last Friday.)
1. Almaz Ayana, Eth
2. Mercy Cherono, Ken
3. Hellen Obiri, Ken
Revised after 10,000m:
Ayana still for the win, with Cheryuiot for silver, and still a toss up
for me between Obiri and Cherono, with the nod continuing to go to Cherono.
W Pole Vault
Two of my three picks for medals tied for 4th at
the ’15 Beijing World Championships. So why are they two of my favorites?
Jenn Suhr, silver and gold medalist in the last two
Olympics, has been the pre-eminent pole vaulter of the last quadrennium. She
won the World Indoors in Portland and is the American record holder at 16-6/5.0.
Interestingly, Suhr has only those
two golds, though multiple finishes on the podium and in the top 5.
Sandi Morris’s rapid ascent up the pole vault ranks finds
her at 16-2¾/4.95 and quite suddenly, it seems, #3 all-time in the world behind
Suhr and Russia’s absent pole vault queen, Yelena Isinbayeva. Morris won bronze
in this year’s World Indoors and was second behind Suhr at the US Olympic
Trials. 3rd placer Lexi Weeks, NCAA Champion for Arkansas this year
was third in the US Trials and is a likely finalist at only 19 years of age.
The Beijing World Champion, Yarisley Silva of Cuba, is #4
all-time and won silver behind Suhr’s gold in London. She has a complete set of
major-meet medals with her Moscow ’13 Worlds bronze rounding out the set. She
has one Diamond League win to her credit this season.
With two Diamond League 2nds this year, Switzerland’s
22-year-old Nicole Buchler was tied for bronze in Portland but lost a World
Indoor bronze on the countback.
The hottest jumper is the world right now is Katerina
Stefanidi of Greece, won has won 4/6
Diamond League meets and was 3rd in another – a remarkable
level of consistency in an event which is notorious for its ups and downs.
Consistency medals in this event.
Nikoleta Kiriakopoulou (Gr) won Beijing bronze and was
ranked #1 in the world last year, but she hasn’t won in 7 outdoor meets this
year. Too bad the meet isn’t held indoors as she has won four times under cover
this year (the Indoor Olympics – I’ll get right on that!).
Doing these previews is a matter of analyzing what’s in
front of me and making predictions based on what I hope is a thorough sifting
of the available information. But on a more personal level, even though I
haven’t picked her for a medal, I can only hope that Brazil’s Fabiana Murer
acquits herself well at home. No pressure – it will only be the most important
meet of her life, one which will define her in the eyes of 100,000,000 people.
1. Jenn Suhr, US
2. Katerina Stefanidi, Gr
3. Sandi Morris, US
M 1500m
Asbel Kiprop has been the most dominant 1500m runner in the
world since 2009. He has been ranked #1 in the world five times, and has won
the Beijing Olympic as well as three consecutive World titles. He has won 23
Diamond League (add two of the old Golden League meets, too) titles in all
events (800m, 1500m, mile).
Twenty three.
Much is made of his occasional ‘failure’, as the British
press would call it. He fell apart in the Monaco DL meet this year and finished
6th – if you call 3:32.03 falling apart. Well, actually it is when a
distance runner finishes one place ahead of you. Mo somethin’.
Teammates Ronald Kwemoi and Elijah Manangoi finished 1-2 in
that mid-July race. No matter how you look at it, that bodes well for Kenya. If
Manangoi is anywhere near the lead with 50m to go, it’s possible he’s faster
than even Kiprop over that short distance, and he moved from off the podium to
on in mere seconds in Beijing. Kwemoi has a less distinguished competitive
record than his Kenyan counterparts, but his PR is a scary-fast 3:28.81.
Ayanleh Souleiman (Djib) was ranked 3rd in the
World last year but did not get out of the heats in Beijing. He tends to get a
lot of press around major meet time and he won bronze in Moscow in ’13.
Abdelaati Iguider, Mor 3:34.67, an excellent tactician, has
World and Olympic bronze to his credit, while neighbor Algerian Taoufik
Makhloufi doesn’t win often, but when he does he makes it count. Think gold,
London Olympics.
Nick Willis (NZ) and Matt Centrowitz (US) are great kickers
but could not keep up with the final sprint in Beijing, and they finished 6th
and 8th with the fourth Kenyan, Timothy Cheruiyot just ahead of
Centrowitz in 7th. I have this itchy feeling that I should mention
Great Britain’s Charlie Grice, who won the JV mile at the Prefontaine Classic
in 3:52.64 and looked remarkably fluid and at ease in doing so; Grice was 9th
in the Beijing final.
Centrowitz’s 8th was a surprise as he has been a
terrific major-meet competitor, with a World Indoor title in Portland this year
to go with his outdoor World silver and bronze, and a 4th in the
London Olympics. An Olympic medal is all that’s missing for the Oregon Duck.
Willis won silver at the Beijing Olympics and bronze this year at World
Indoors.
I think Kenya is poised to win two medals; the question behind
Kiprop is who and which medal. Centrowitz and Iguider are remarkably evenly
matched for 3rd. The slower the first half of this race, the better Centrowitz’s chances.
1. Asbel Kiprop, Ken
2. Elijah Manangoi, Ken
3. Matt Centrowitz, US
W 100m Hurdles
Not many expected Brianna Rollins to be the winner of the US
Olympic Trials sprint hurdles. Keni Harrison had run the 2nd fastest
time in history before the Trials at 12.24 and has since gone on to set the
world record at 12.20. But in between she finished an inexplicable 6th
in the US Trials and failed to make the US team.
Once upon a time – that would be 2013 – Rollins was the hot
young star of American hurdling. She blasted onto the scene with a 12.39 at the
NCAA Championships and then a scorching 12.26 at US outdoor nationals in Des
Moines. She followed that with a World Championships win in Moscow, and now is
leader of the US Rio sprint hurdle delegation at 24.
This year’s Diamond League races don’t help us as much as
they could as Harrison had won 4/5. But Rollins won the 5th at Oslo,
while Nia Ali has a 2nd and two 4ths to her credit; she is always in
the mix. Ali was the upset winner of World Indoors, though I think it’s high
time we stop thinking of her achievements as upsets; her Portland win was her
second consecutive World Indoor title.
Kristi Castlin was more of a surprise to make the US team,
but watch out – she is known for her flashes of brilliance in this event.
(Quick: who won the ’14 Diamond League Van Damme final? Yup, that would be
Castlin). She was 3rd in the July 22nd London Diamond
League race behind Harrison and Rollins. Castlin, like Ali, shows up. A US
sweep would not be a total surprise.
The biggest obstacle to that sweep is Tiffany Porter of
Great Britain, formerly of the United States, who took one look around at US
hurdle depth and exercised her citizenship free agency and fled for the UK
team. Sister Cindy Ofili left for Great Britain last year. Nothing says United
Kingdom like the University of Michigan, eh? They are both alums.
Porter has been a World Championships finalist twice and
brought home (if you know what I mean) bronze in 2015. Porter just finished 3rd
at the European Championships behind Cindy Roeleder (Ger) and Alina Talay of
Belarus, who finished a surprise 2nd and 3rd at Worlds
last year, yet were ranked only 9th and 10th in the world
by Track and Field News due to their overall much thinner competitive records.
Porter was 5th at ’15 Worlds and was ranked 5th due to
her much deeper season.
Jamaica’s Danielle Williams won the ’15 Worlds race (in case
you’re wondering, in that meet, US hurdlers had trouble either starting when
the starter wanted them to or running over the hurdles rather than through
them). But for one race in China, Williams’ entire ’16 campaign has been
conducted in North and Central America, and in unimpressive times.
In a remarkable display of dominance, the US occupies the
top twenty-three places on this
year’s world performance list.
Finally, in our ‘leave it to the British press’ department,
when Porter became a British citizen in 2010, she was asked at a press
conference to sing their national anthem.
It did not go well.
There will always be an England.
1. Brianna Rollins, US
2. Nia Ali, US
3. Tiffany Porter, GB
M 200m
At the Beijing World Championships, the best view in the
house went to South Africa’s surprise bronze medalist, Anaso Jobodwana, who got
to watch the race unfold in front of him. Justin Gatlin ran a disheartened
19.74 to Usain Bolt’s 19.55, while Jobodwana ran an inspired 19.87 for 3rd.
Justin Gatlin defeated Olympic 400m gold medalist LaShawn
Merritt 19.75-19.79 at the US Olympic Trials. It’s interesting to note that
Merritt has the best time in the world this year just a hundredth ahead of
Gatlin; he also has a deeper resume as he has broken 19.80 three times to
Gatlin’s one, but it’s Gatlin who is national champion.
The men’s 200m comes after Gatlin and Merritt have run their
strongest races. Gatlin will have the 100m rounds under his belt; Merritt the
400m (interestingly, those finals were back-to-back on the third day of the
meet, when Bolt won the 100m and Wayde van Niekerk set a remarkable 43.03 world
record).
Ameer Webb was hot earlier in the season as the US veteran
(25 is veteran status in sprinting!) finally came into his own. His 20.00
seemed a bit slow at the Olympic Trials when he had run 19.85 in Doha in June
(albeit with a legal but helpful 1.9 wind). He has been under 20.00 three times
this year and is a likely finalist here; expect him to break 19.80 in the final
- he may well set a record for place, given the competition ahead of him.
Bolt does show up when it counts, and while I do think he’ll
win, it’s here that he’s most
vulnerable. It will be interesting to see how he reacts to pressure from
two and not one. (Hint: don’t look to either side! That bad habit could hurt
him here.)
World Championships 4th placer Alonso Edward
(Pan) hasn’t broken 20.00 yet this year, but he also hasn’t finished worse than
3rd; count in two Diamond League wins and his competitive record
matters far more than his times. Zharnel Hughes, Great Britain’s 21-year-old start of the future was 5th
at Worlds, but his 21.21 for 7th at the European Championships makes
an impact here unlikely.
Note that South Africa’s 400m World champion Wayde van
Niekerk has run the 200m seven times this year, and twice flirted with breaking
20.00 in the South African national championships… the 200m comes after his
best event… hey, why not?
I think this will be the best men’s 200m since Bolt’s world
record in Berlin in 2009. With Gatlin and Merritt so solidly in the mix, and
with wild cards like Webb and van Niekerk, this could be one of the greatest
200m races of all-time.
1. Usain Bolt, Jam
2. Justin Gatlin, US
3. LaShawn Merrittt, US
W Javelin
As in 2015, women’s javelin is all over the place. Duck! In
a very evenly matched field, no single thrower emerges as a clear favorite.
Last year Barbora Spotakova finished 9th in the
World Championships but still had the strongest overall season and was ranked
#1 in the world by Track and Field News. She just topped the world list with
her 219-4/66.87 to win the Czech title but then finished 5th against
a thinner field in the Euro Champs. Nonetheless, she says that the foot injury
that has plagued her for years is now healed. If so, watch out world. She is
the two-time defending Olympic champion and won the 2007 World crown in Daegu.
The surprise winner in Beijing was Katharina Molitor of
Germany, who won on the final throw of the competition. She has not followed up
her triumph well this season, as her Diamond League finishes range from 4th-7th
and she was 4th at Euro Champs.
Christin Hussong (Ger) tanked in the European Championships
and didn’t advance to finals, but she later uncorked the #2 throw in the world,
217-10/66.41, on the same day but at a different meet than Spotakova’s world
leader.
Madara Palameika (Lat) leads the Diamond League and has won
there twice, with a 2nd and a 4th to back up her wins.
This kind of consistency wins medals. BUT! She, too, fell apart in the European
Championships, with a 7th place finish.
Kathryn Mitchell (Aus) is tied for 2nd in the
Diamond League with three 2nds and a 3rd but is only 8th
on the world list in distance this year. Still, three 2nds… Since she’s from
Australia, it’s much more challenging for her to get exposure on the world
scene.
It’s South Africa’s Sunette Viljoen (RSA) she’s tied with.
While Viljoen has twice won World bronze, she has yet to have that one big
throw when she needs it most. An up and down season with two DL wins, yet with
distressing 7th and 5th place finishes at meets at the
beginning of June and July, respectively. Not a great way to go into the
Olympics.
So who didn’t tank at the European Championships? Why that
would be Tatsiana Khaladovich of Belarus, the hottest javelin thrower in the
world. She just won the European Championships with a PR 211-11/66.34 and
followed that with a win in Monaco. The rest of the world is nervous.
I think the medalists will come from Khaladovich, Mitchell,
Palameika, and Spotakova.
1. Tatsiana Khaladovich, Blr
2. Madara Palameika, Lat
3. Barbora Spotakova, Cze
W Long Jump
Serbia’s Ivana Spanovic has dominated the Diamond League
this season with three wins and a second. She also brings the competitive
experience of having won two World bronzes, and this year she won silver in the
Portland World Indoors as well as the European title in Amsterdam.
And who won in Portland? Spanovic’s friendly nemesis,
Brittany Reese of the US, who has won one Olympic and three World
Championships. This season, Reese has a first and a second in Diamond League
results and leads the world list at 23-11¾/7.31.
In true style, they have traded DL wins.
Tianna Bartoletta, as 19-year-old Tianna Madison, pulled off
one of the great surprises in World Championship history when she won in
Helsinki in 2005. She came roaring back to win again in Beijing last year - on
her last jump - an unusual 10 years between titles. She has been 3rd
twice on the Diamond League circuit this year and was second at the US Trials
in 23-½/7.02.
London bronze medalist Janay de Loach, the 3rd
qualifier at the US Trials at 22-9/6.93, was 8th at Worlds last year
when Reese, who had a back injury, uncharacteristically did not make the final.
It was Great Britain’s Shara Proctor who fell victim to
Bartoletta’s heroics in Beijing and settled for silver. Canada’s Christabel
Nettey has finished second twice on the Diamond circuit this season and
just missed bronze in Beijing.
Great Britain’s Shara Proctor led the Beijing final until
Bartoletta uncorked her winning jump. Proctor won silver there and was ranked
second in the world last year, but has been unusually quiet on the world scene
this year with only modest results in two Diamond League meets.
Great Britain’s Lorraine Ugen won ’16 World Indoor bronze in
Portland and was the 2013 NCAA champion for Texas Christian University. Note,
too that Sosthene Moguenara (Ger) and Brooke Stratton (Aus) both have long
jumps this year, but not the depth of competitive record of their more
illustrious peers.
This just in: all it takes is one jump. Just ask Bartoletta
– when she was 19.
1. Brittany Reese, US
2. Tianna Bartoletta, US
3. Ivana Spanovic, Serbia
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